The Crime Survey For England and Wales (CSEW) for the year October 2012 to September 2013 shows that the overall crime figures are the lowest that they have been since the survey was established in 1981. As we reported in this post, household burglary has dropped by 10%. The survey is based on interviews with the public and is thought to give the most accurate statistics.
Many burglaries go unreported…
However, the figures are considerably greater than the police figures for recorded crime, which seems to indicate that many offences go unreported. CSEW figures are generally thought to be the most accurate and show that crime peaked in 1995 and has been falling ever since. However, the majority of the public does not believe the figures, thinking that crime levels are actually increasing, or at best static.
Assuming that the figures are accurate, and while Ministers privately admit that they do not know the reasons for the fall, there could be a number of reasons – or combinations of reasons – for them.
Preventing burglaries with an alarm system
The first and most obvious of these is that burglaries are falling because more and more households are installing home burglar alarm systems, CCTV, and security lighting. It is a fact that burglars will usually attack the softest targets and if there are highly visible security measures in force at a property they won’t run the risk of getting caught. There are exceptions, of course, and if a home is known to have valuable property it may be targeted by more sophisticated criminals, but this is the exception rather than the rule. Although there will be a proportion of criminals with lower than average intelligence, given the choice, the majority will go for the home that has no protection every time.
Fall in price of televisions and other equipment
Next, is the fact that items such as flat-screen TVs and DVD players have fallen in value which means that, while the risks are the same, the rewards are less. Housebreaking, along with vehicle crime, is often described as a “beginner” crime and it may be that the potential rewards are no longer high enough to justify some people starting on a downward path with all its inherent risk.
Reduction in hard drug use
Then there is the falling use of hard drugs which is closely linked to burglary. Drug users need money to purchase drugs and will usually resort to burglary or robbery in order to fund their habit. Equally, with the current hard times in mind, many of the potential criminal fraternity (young male adults) no longer have the money to purchase alcohol which may fuel attempts at burglary.
Decrease in population demographic
It is also a fact that the population of the western world is ageing which means that there are fewer in the young male adult group who might engage in housebreaking.
Some more bizarre ideas include the legalisation of abortion laws in the 1970s which led to a fall in crime levels twenty years later since there are fewer births in the groups considered to be at a high risk of offending.
Changes in behaviour
Another idea that has been promoted is that the removal of lead from petrol has also helped because high levels of it in the atmosphere are thought to lead to “belligerent” behaviour.
Rise of cybercrime
It may also be that criminals are turning more to cybercrime which carries a less inherent risk of getting caught.
Burglary rates down in England but up in Kent
Whatever the reason for the figures, it has to be stressed that these are overall figures for England and Wales. In Kent, the burglary figures have increased considerably, partly as a result of police recording being changed.
Ultimately, it is a fact that burglars will avoid homes that have alarms if they possibly can, so if your home does not, you are at far greater risk than your neighbour who has installed an alarm.